The two primary approaches of analyzing currency markets are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamentals focus on financial and economic theories, as well as political developments to determine forces of supply and demand. One clear point of distinction between fundamentals and technicals is that fundamental analysis studies the causes of market movements, while technical analysis studies the effects of market movements.
Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of macroeconomic indicators, asset markets, and political considerations when evaluating one nation's currency relative to another. Macroeconomic indicators include figures such as growth rates; as measured by Gross Domestic Product, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, money supply, foreign exchange reserves and productivity. Asset markets comprise stocks, bonds, and real estate. Political considerations impact the level of confidence in a nation's government, the climate of stability and level of certainty.
Sometimes governments stand in the way of market forces impacting their currencies, and hence, intervene to keep currencies from deviating markedly from undesired levels. Currency interventions are conducted by central banks and usually have a notable, albeit a temporary, impact on FX markets. A central bank could undertake unilateral purchases/sales of its currency against another currency; or engage in a concerted intervention in which it collaborates with other central banks for a much more pronounced effect. Alternatively, some countries can manage to move their currencies, merely by hinting, or threatening to intervene.
- The Basic Theories
Purchasing Power Parity
The PPP theory states that exchange rates are determined by the relative prices of similar baskets of goods. Changes in inflation rates are expected to be offset by equal but opposite changes in the exchange rate. Take the classic example of hamburgers. If the burger costs $2.00 in the US and £1.00 in the UK, then according to PPP, the £-$ exchange rate must be 2 dollars per one British pound.
If the prevailing market exchange rate is $1.7 per British pound, then the pound is said to be undervalued and the dollar overvalued. The theory then postulates that the two currencies will eventually move towards the 2:1 relation.
PPP's major weakness is that it assumes goods are easily tradable, with no costs to trade such as tariffs, quotas or taxes. Another weakness is that it applies only for goods and ignores services, where room for differences in value is significant. Furthermore, there are several factors besides inflation and interest rate differentials impacting exchange rates, such as economic releases/reports, asset markets and political developments. There was little empirical evidence of the effectiveness of PPP prior to the 1990s. Thereafter, PPP was seen to have worked only in the long term (3-5 years) when prices eventually correct towards parity.
- Interest Rate Parity
IRP states that an appreciation (depreciation) of one currency against another currency must be neutralized by a change in the interest rate differential. If US interest rates exceed Japanese interest rates, then the US dollar should depreciate against the Japanese yen by an amount that prevents riskless arbitrage. The future exchange rate is reflected into the forward exchange rate stated today. In our example, the forward exchange rate of the dollar is said to be at discount because it buys fewer Japanese yen in the forward rate than it does in the spot rate. The yen is said to be at a premium.
IRP showed no proof of working after the 1990s. Contrary to the theory, currencies with higher interest rates characteristically appreciated rather than depreciated on the reward of future containment of inflation and a higher yielding currency.
- Balance of Payments Model
This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level—the rate that produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience a reduction in its foreign exchange reserves, which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation' goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium.
Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, while ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Such flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the Asset Market Model.
Accumulation/Distribution (AD)
Accumulation Distribution is a price and volume indicator.
- When the Accumulation/Distribution moves up, it shows that the security is being accumulated (Buying), as most of the volume is associated with upward price movement.
- When the indicator moves down, it shows that the security is being distributed (Selling), as most of the volume is associated with downward price movement.
- Divergences between the Accumulation/Distribution indicator and the price of the security indicate the upcoming change of prices.
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